Can PNG afford extra debt?

It’s a unprecedented sum of money for a rustic already fighting years of persistent price range deficits. The results of a default on a mortgage this huge could be dire – significantly at a time when a rising quantity of creating international locations face debt misery.

At current, there are not any indicators that PNG is struggling to service debt. However the nationwide steadiness sheet is susceptible to market shifts. Some 49 per cent of PNG’s debt is topic to variable rates of interest which might be revised yearly. And, as rates of interest climb globally, PNG is already taking a success.

Nationwide debt stands at US$15.3 billion, amounting to 50 per cent of GDP. The typical rate of interest on home debt is 7.2 per cent, a lot larger than the two.8 per cent common rate of interest on overseas debt (PNG’s inventory of debt is nearly evenly cut up between home and overseas debt).

So, PNG wants a strategy to scale back its debt burden. Financing its deficits primarily by means of overseas debt with decrease rates of interest is sweet. The cheaper charges of the IMF mortgage unencumber extra funds to be spent on improvement.

Spending financed by extreme borrowing is susceptible to market shifts that may result in a collapse in income and huge fiscal deficits.

However the IMF has itself listed PNG as a rustic at excessive danger of debt misery, citing as causes low ranges of foreign-exchange reserves, liabilities for state-owned entities, and the economic system’s vulnerability to fluctuations in commodity costs.

Which begs the query: can borrowing extra scale back the danger of debt misery?

The IMF mortgage phrases are beneficial. The rate of interest is decrease than the PNG common at simply 2.4 per cent. The ten-year reimbursement interval on the mortgage, with a five-and-a-half-year grace interval, can also be beneficiant. A optimistic outlook for brand new useful resource initiatives additionally factors to future public income flows.

All of which sounds good, however dangers stay. Earlier governments haven’t all the time been fiscally accountable, and this expertise holds classes.

Previous to 2002, PNG was characterised as a rustic trapped by excessive debt with an upward deficit spiral. Debt as a share of GDP rose from 17 per cent on the time of independence in 1975 to 47 per cent, a pattern that had persevered by means of 9 totally different governments spanning 26 years. However as illustrated within the chart under, PNG has loved relative political stability within the years since 2002. The last decade-long authorities of Sir Michael Somare noticed the best fall in nationwide debt. However the rollercoaster turned. With Peter O’Neill as PM (2012–19), debt shot again up, a pattern that has largely continued since James Marape got here to energy.

Some commentators characterised the Somare years as a time of booming sources. Excessive commodity costs yielded robust authorities revenues from firm taxes after which got here a spike in earnings tax receipts from the development part of the PNG Liquefied Pure Fuel Mission in 2009. Income doubled throughout the interval whereas authorities spending elevated by solely 58 per cent, so PNG moved forward with fiscal surpluses and debt fell. The end result lowered PNG’s debt servicing burden from a historic excessive of 25 per cent to a low of 5 per cent.

However the beneficial properties had been frittered away by O’Neill’s fiscal mismanagement. The 2013 price range declared: “we’re borrowing sure within the data that income inflows from mining and LNG initiatives will make reimbursement manageable”. Debt elevated and so did authorities expenditure. However the “sure data” didn’t maintain. A stoop in commodity costs in 2015 and a dispute over the LNG challenge meant that income didn’t meet expectations. The collapse in income prolonged to different areas equivalent to private earnings tax, which fell according to the decline in formal sector employment, and falls in firm tax and GST collections.

This historical past stands as a warning. PNG as a useful resource wealthy, “value taking” economic system must be prudent. Spending financed by extreme borrowing is susceptible to market shifts that may result in a collapse in income and huge fiscal deficits. Underneath O’Neill, debt shot as much as 40 per cent of GDP. Even after the pandemic years, turning this round is crucial.

For PNG, taking up extra debt is manageable, offered the cash is invested in constructing productive capability and brings returns. Borrowing towards future useful resource income is unwise. The human toll of a miscalculation may very well be excessive if the nation turns into shackled to debt serving somewhat than servicing its folks.

Contributor: Maholopa (Maho) Laveil.