Background:
Play Magnus is a inventory a few of my readers my bear in mind. I initially invested (speculated) in October 2020 at 16,5 NOK per share, however offered rapidly after my preliminary timing was actually dangerous with a lack of round -20%.
I then purchased once more in November 2020 at a better worth (~17 NOKs) . I then managed to promote round 1/3 of the place near the excessive at 38 NOKs per share. This yr, i offered the rest of the place shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine to handle portfolio volatility. Total, I made 0,5% on the entire commerce (pre taxes, pre prices) which clearly reveals that my buying and selling abilities are usually not superb.
I nonetheless adopted the inventory as I favored the enterprise, the administration group and thought that in some unspecified time in the future in time this might be attention-grabbing. Truly I simply talked this Monday with a buddy that at costs under 10 NOK, the inventory appears attention-grabbing.
The inventory chart reveals how unstable the trip from Play Magnus was since its IPO:
One other attention-grabbing information level is that “pre Ukraine”, Russian Bilionaire Yuri Millner invested ~10 mn USD into the corporate by way of a capital improve at ~18 NOK.
The Chess.com provide
Now just about out of the blue, foremost competitor Chess.com made a NOK 13 /Share provide which the board of Play Magnus appears to have already accepted in addition to his highness Magnus in keeping with his Twitter Account.
The provide is clearly opportunistic, because it tries to profit from the low costs in the previous couple of months. Nevertheless they provide a “carrot” to bigger traders:
- Shareholders proudly owning one p.c or extra of Play Magnus Group’s share capital as of 24 August 2022 can determine between settlement in shares of Chess Holdings, LLC, final guardian of Chess.com – http://chess.com and/or in money whereas the remaining shareholders will obtain settlement in money
So one can assume that the Administration, Magnus and in addition Millner will roll into Chess.com, so for them absolutely the valuation of the provide is much less related however fairly the relative valuation to Chess.com and any “add-ons”.
For small traders and for Funds that aren’t allowed to carry personal investments, that is after all not optimum because it prevents them from benefiting from a possible restoration. Trying on the shareholder checklist from PM’s web site, there may be a number of >1% shareholders who’re perhaps not 100% completely satisfied. Particularly because the 1% threshold is predicated on 24.6. holdings, so nobody can construct up a 1% now and roll that into Chess.com.
However, I’ve completely no expertise how the Norwegian system works with regard to minority rights and the way excessive the chance is for a greater provide.
On the time of writing, the shares commerce at round 12,60 NOK, so the chance of the bid succeeding appears to be thought-about excessive.
Norwegian Take over regulation / Squeeze out and many others
From what I’ve heard, the Norwegian regulation is comparatively minority pleasant. I discovered for example this doc on Euronext which says the next:
A minority shareholder could, inside a specified deadline of not less than two months’ length, object to the provide worth and request that the Norwegian courts decide the provide worth.
The large query is: how would a court docket in Norway decide the “truthful worth” of Play Magnus ?
Due to this fact a shout out to any reader with expertise in Norwegian Take overs: Does somebody have extra expertise how the worth of firms is set by Norwegian courts ?
I’d be actually on this so as to discover out if this might be a possible particular state of affairs.