Following an annual custom, I’ll attempt to evaluate my present portfolio not less than every year by writing quick summaries for every particular person place. 14 of the 28 positions from final 12 months are nonetheless within the portfolio and I’ve added 9 new positions. That tunover has been primarily pushed by the occasions in 2022, which have modified fundamentals for fairly a number of of the previous positions, but in addition opened up alternatives for brand new ones. A extra complete Efficiency evaluate will observe in early January 2023.
A brief person information:
My type of investing largely concentrates on 20-30 small/midcap shares that for my part have a great return/danger profile over the following 3-5 years. Lots of this shares aren’t family names and are unlikely to make spectacular good points in a single 12 months. Lots of them look attention-grabbing solely after the second or third look. So in case you are searching for a “Scorching inventory for 2023”, this put up received’t assist you a lot.
And at all times bear in mind: THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
The summaries of the earlier years could be discovered right here:
My 28 Investments for 2022
My 21 (+6) Investments for 2021
My 20 investments for 2020
My 22(+1) Investments for 2019
My 21 investments for 2018
My 27 investments for 2017
My 27 investments for 2016
My 28 investments for 2015
My 24 investments for 2014
My 22 investments for 2013
Let’s go:
1. TFF Group (Portfolio weight 8,1%, Holding interval 12,0 years)
TFF is the “Final inventory standing” of the preliminary portfolio from 12 years in the past. It’s a household owned & run oak barrel producer. Has grown nicely over a few years because of Asian demand for oak aged French wines and opportunistic acquisitions. Whisky barrels have added to progress. After a few years of organically constructing US operations from scratch which required vital capital outlay and no gross sales, the primary quarter of the 2022/2023 FY noticed a big enhance in gross sales (+67%) which explains the great efficiency in 2022. No motive to vary a lot other than some rebalancing, “Long run Maintain”
2. G. Perrier (5,0%, 9,8 years)
French, household owned & run small cap, specialist for electrical installations with a robust place in Nuclear upkeep. Good progress regardless of financial headwinds. They added a brand new phase in 2021 (aerospace and defence). Though high line grew considerably within the first 9M, the share worth was comparatively weak. Again in 2013 I purchased it as an affordable inventory, it turned out to be a nicely run, decently rising firm that compounds nicely. “Long run Maintain”.
3. Thermador (4,4%, 9,5 years)
Thermador is a French primarily based building provide distribution firm. Distinct “outsider type” company tradition with an emphasis on decentralized resolution making and common M&A exercise. Thermador began very nicely into 2022, nonetheless progress slowed down a bit of in Q2, solely to re-accellerate in Q3. Sadly, I failed so as to add in September when the share traded close to 60 EUR. “Long run maintain”.
4. Admiral (5,6%, 8,4 years)
“Outsider type” direct retail insurance coverage firm. UK primarily based, giant value benefits, founders personal vital share positions. A number of progress initiatives on the best way. The EU subsidiaries are making superb progress with an extended progress runway in entrance of them. After a really resilient 2021, the inventory suffered considerably in 2022 together with all different UK insurance coverage shares and declined by round -34%. Because of the nature of the enterprise (1 12 months renewal cycle), the speedy rise in claims inflation can solely be handed on with a time lag which damage income to some extent. Additionally Reinsurance would possibly turn into a bit of bit costlier. On the plus facet, Admiral’s aggressive benefits persist and even after the exit of the final founder, the corporate nonetheless appears to be nicely run. “Long run maintain”.
5. Bouvet (3,8%, 8,4 years)
IT consulting firm from Norway. After I purchased the inventory eight years in the past, the inventory worth beforehand had been hit arduous by the oil worth decline, Statoil was the most important consumer. The enterprise and the inventory confirmed a robust restoration since 2016. I used to be uncertain in regards to the inventory in some years however the firm stored rising. In early 2020, I bought half of the place (a lot too early after all). The corporate surprises me very 12 months (+20% Gross sales and EPS in 2022) and wih Norway drowning in Oil and Gasoline cash, factor might stay Okay for a while. In comparison with the standard of the enterprise, the inventory is just not too costly. “Maintain”.
6. Companions Fund (4,1%, 7,3 years)
An funding right into a fund run by a detailed good friend. Mathias is a “Munger type” investor with a relative concentrated portfolio of “moat” firms, a lot of them from the US. I believe it’s a good complimentary publicity for my funding type and he has been ouperforming my portfolio by some proportion factors per 12 months till 2022. On the time of writing, 2022 seems like a really unhealthy 12 months. Aside from many “Cathy Woods type” progress buyers, I’m 100% certain that the Companions Fund will get well and do nicely over the following 10-20 Years “Long run maintain”.
7. VEF (previously Vostok Rising Finance (1,3%, 3,7 years)
That is the sister firm of Vostok New Ventures (that I bought in 2020), however specializing on Rising Markets Fintech. The fund has a big weighting in Brazil which I discover very attention-grabbing. The administration runs the portfolio extraordinarily affected person and solely invests after they see an actual alternative. The share worth received hammered in 2022 like many different “listed VCs”, fortunately lower than sister firm VNV. The biggest place, Brazilian Fintech Creditas appears to do nonetheless comparatively nicely. Not too long ago I wrote about my doubts that listed Enterprise Capital has some structural points. For VEF, I’m nonetheless ready to attend a 12 months or two as a way to see how this performs out. “Maintain”.
8. Sixt AG Choice shares (4,0%, 1,9 years)
Sixt is an organization I’ve been admiring for a very long time however by no means managed to “pull the set off” to purchase. Lastly, throughout the darkish days of Covid-19, I managed to construct up a place within the cheaper pref shares.
2022 was not a great 12 months for the inventory worth, the inventory lost-36% regardless of a rise in ~40% in gross sales and +60% in EBT. Gross sales and income are actually considerably above pre-Covid ranges. This interprets int ~8x 2022 P/E. Even assuming that 2023 can be a harder 12 months, I nonetheless suppose that Sixt is attractve at this stage. What I’ll by no means perceive is the actual fact, that the Pref shares commerce at such a reduction to the widespread shares. I added to the postion throughout my 12 months finish rebalancing. “Long run maintain”.
9. Mediqon AG (0,8%, 2,8 years)
Mediqon is among the remainders of my “German Basket” try. The corporate tries to place itself as one thing like a “Mini Constellation” or “Mini Danaher” and has established two platforms over which they purchase small enterprise. The corporate once more managed to promote shares to new buyers at excessive share costs, one of many buyers is definitely one of many Rayles brothers who based Danaher. With a market cap of 200 mn EUR, the corporate now additionally would possibly take pleasure in some scale results. “Maintain”.
10. AOC Fund (4,7%, 2,4 years)
My second fund funding. This time into an “activist fund”, most well-known due to its profitable marketing campaign on Stada. They take a fairly concentrated long run strategy and actively work with/in firm boards. Regardless of the unbelievable historic efficiency I’m additionally attempting to be taught from them. 2022 to this point seems like a really robust 12 months in relative phrases, supported by considered one of their giant positions, PNE Wind which mor than doubled in 2022. “Long run Maintain”.
11. Alimentation Couche-Tard (4,5%, 1,9 years)
ACT entered the portfolio in 2021 as considered one of my only a few “giant cap” investments. It was the uncommon probability to get into a top quality compounder at an inexpensive valuation (13-14x trailing PE). The corporate is known for its decentralized, entrepreneurial tradition and wonderful capital allocation. After a failed bid for Carrefour, ACT appears to have fallen out of favor with some buyers which opened this chance. In fact there are some points resembling the problem how EV charging will develop and sure ESG matters (Tobacco gross sales), however total that is one for the long term though it wants cautious watching (EV charging). “Long run maintain”.
12. Meier & Tobler AG (8,1%, 1,5 years)
Meier & Tobler is among the shares I found by way of my “All Swiss Shares” collection. The corporate itself runs a comparatively boring service & distribution enterprise in Switzerland, offering heating and cooling gear and providers to households and firms. The inventory turned low cost as a result of they bungled a merger with considered one of their largest rivals. In 2022, the inventory took off like a rocket primarily because of excessive vitality costs and lots of enterprise from individuals who wish to improve their heating programs 8heat pumps). I’ve been lowering the place already two occasions by 1/10 because the valuation has reached already the midpoit of my focused vary. “Maintain”.
13. Schaffner AG (4,1%, 1,2 years)
Schaffner is one other Swiss discovery. It’s a small firm that has undergone a big transition over the past months/years as a way to consider the present pattern in direction of Electrification. The inventory seems comparatively low cost in comparison with the underlying high quality and reported progress charges. In 2022, total numbers are nonetheless a bit of bit depressed as a result of the small remaining car phase has been struggling, whereas the primary enterprise runs like a “swiss clockwork”. If the corporate can be valued like different comparable Swiss shares, they need to have vital potential. “Maintain”.
14. BioNTech AG (2,2%, 1,8 years)
BioNTech was an “inspiration” from the start of 2021. It was meant to be a “guess” each on the founders and the know-how in addition to a hedge towards a protracted Covid-19 pandemic. I bought round 1/3 of the place near peak costs, however I plan to carry BioNTech for the mid-to-long time period as I believe that there’s a first rate probability that BioNTech can develop the mRNA platform additionally right into a pipeline towards different illnesses, particularly most cancers which was the unique goal of the corporate. The billions in money they made on the Covid vaccine might pace up the method. “Maintain”.
15. Nabaltec (5,7%, 0,9 years)
Nabaltec is a small German Specialty Chemical compounds firm that I added in February. The timing was clearly not optimum, as, along with nearly all chemical firms, Nabaltec received hit arduous be the results of the warfare in Ukraine, particularly with regard to excessive Oil, Gasoline and electrical energy costs. Apparently, Nabaltec managed to boost costs and because of this, elevated the revenue forecast a number of occasions in 2022, regardless of some weak point of their “progress story” Boehmit, which is a vital a part of EV battery packs. From what I’ve seen to this point, Nabaltec is a conservatively run “hidden champion” that can clearly wrestle with excessive vitality costs for a while, however managed to this point rather well.
There’s additionally some “hidden upsides” within the enterprise, resembling a strugling US subsidiary which appears to supply now a really attention-grabbing strategic choice. After lowering the place in early summer time, I used to be fortunate to extend it once more at very low costs. That is clearly a place to observe, however total I’m ready to carry this for a few years as a way to notice th full worth. “Maintain”.
16. Photo voltaic Group A/S (4,8%, 0,6 years)
Photo voltaic Goup is the primary results of my “all Danish Shares” collection. It’s a small Danish wholesale firm that gives provides for heating, cooling and different electrical centered parts to craftsmen in Scandinavia and the Netherlands. After “hibernating” for a few years, the corporate has began rising in 2021 and has continued to take action in 2022. The corporate is rising at double digit charges with enhancing margins and comparable excessive returns on invested capital (~25%). They’ve raised their 2022 earnings forecast 3 occasions.
Perhaps I’m overlooking one thing right here (understanding that there can be some adverse impression of a basic housing gradual donw), however to me it’s a full mistery why this inventory trades at solely 6,8x 2022 P/E. “Maintain”.
17. DCC Plc (4,6%, 0,1 years)
DCC is the most recent addition to the portfolio. At its core, DCC is a really unglamorous, mid-cap distribution firm working through 3 completely different platforms (Power, “Expertise” and healthcare) across the globe and might be characterised as “serial acquirer”. Regardless of a particularly robust 20 12 months+ observe file, the inventory fell out of favour and trades at very engaging valuation ranges.
The primary enterprise, (fossile) Power clearly has challenges, however DCC is adressing this actively of their startegy. Up to now, the entry level appears to have been “too early”, however this inevstment clearly wants a while as a way to discover out if my case works or not. “Maintain”.
18. Royal Unibrew (4,4%, 0,2 years)
Royal Unibrew is the second Danish addition ensuing from my “all Danish shares” collection. What I favored in regards to the firm is the truth that on high of a really robust observe file, they appear to have a really attention-grabbing decentralized tradition and actually good capital allocation abilities plus high notch reporting. The enterprise as such appears to be a vey steady on and really engaging in comparison with different beverage classes.
It must be seen if they’ll modify costs as rapidly as they predicted as a way to neutralize their elevated prices. If that will be the case, the corporate would have soem vital elementary upside from depressed 2022 stage. I hope that it is a stcok that I can maintain long run.“Maintain”.
19. GTT Group (4,1%, 0,8 years)
GTT Group or previously often known as “Gaztransport et Technigaz” is a French inventory that I purchased a second time, proper after the Ukraine warfare began (first time in 2016). The corporate has a fairly distinctive and nearly monopolistic enterprise mannequin in proudly owning the patents on how you can design and manufacture the inside and isolation of huge LNG carriers. Usually, regardless of the excessive margins and returns on capital, the inventory would have been a lot too costly for my liking, nonetheless the particular circumstances made me set up a “tactical” place within the inventory as a foremost beneficiary of the unavoidable building growth in LNG vessels. I already took some income when the inventory was up +50%, within the latest weeks, the inventory worth was weak because of the ongoing points with Korean authoroties who’re eager to present an even bigger a part of the “cake” to their native shipbuilders. As a tactical place, it is a “Maintain however watch intently”.
20. ABO Wind (3,6%, 0,8 years)
ABO WInd is the sole the rest of my tactical “Freedom Power” basket that I established proper after the beginning of the Ukraine warfare. I stored ABO Wind as a result of for my part, the corporate continues to be considerably undervalued. Their “develop and promote” enterprise mannequin makes it a lot more durable to undertand the actual worth creation which for my part is critical.
The corporate is ready as much as create vital long run worth for shareholders, though it would take a while till that is absolutely mirrored of their P&L. Taking a look at market multiples, in an M&A transaction, the intrinisc worth of the enterprise can be considerably increased than the present share worth. “Maintain”
21. Rockwool (1,1%, 0,3 years)
Rockwool, a Danish producer of insulation materials primarily based on Rock wool, is a part of my “freedon insulation” basket that I began in Autumn. I made a decision to maintain Rockwool primarily as a result of I believe it’s a “high quality firm” and as well as has supper stable funds. It wants but to be seen how a lot they’ll endure from a tough actual property downturn, nonetheless within the mid time period they need to clearly profit kind the pattern to insulate buildings and save vitality. “Maintain & Watch”.
22. Sto SE (1%, 0,3 years)
Sto SE, the German insulation firm, is the second remaining member of the “freedom Insulation” baskat”. As Rockwool, Sto is financially actually stable and the valuation is reasonable. “Maintain & Watch”.
23. Recticel (0,6%, 0,3 years)
Recticel is the third remaining insulation firm. I added it afterward once I discovered that I missed out on it as an European insutlation firm. Recticel underwent a big transformation and did promote all different enterprise segments apart from insulation. When all of the pending transactions have closed, Recticel seems very low cost. “Maintain & Watch”.